However, even if the U.S. implements more of a protectionist stance on trade, it does not necessarily spell doom for emerging markets. As the size of the emerging market economies has grown — now 40% of global GDP, doubling over the past 25 years — so has the contour of emerging market trade. Their exports to the U.S. have become a smaller slice of the pie, totaling only 16%, down from 21% in 2005. And exports to developed markets excluding the U.S. are also down, totaling 42% of exports versus 49% in 2005. At the same time, exports of emerging market countries to other emerging market countries has increased to 40% of total exports, up from 28% in 2005. It is important to remember that trade is a two-way street. A full 46% of U.S. exports are to emerging markets (up from 36% in 2005), suggesting the U.S. may be more vulnerable to any trade confrontation with the emerging markets.
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